WDPN35 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 687 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE 
BASED ON AN APPROXIMATELY 25 MILE EYE IN ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. THE EIR IMAGERY SHOWS WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND DIMINISHING 
DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS 
BASED ON THE DIMINISHING CONVECTION, THE RJTD CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATE T5.5 (102 KTS), AND A RECENT 182132Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 88 
KTS. THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) HAS CUT OFF TY 22W FROM 
THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE EAST THAT HAD BEEN FUELING A ROBUST 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND INTENSIFICATION. THE REDUCED OUTFLOW 
ALONG WITH TY 22W MOVING INTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, 26-27 CELSIUS, HAS LED TO WEAKENING SOONER THAN 
ANTICIPATED, DESPITE LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS). TY 22W HAS 
ACCELERATED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE REBUILDING STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. 
   B. THE STR IS RE-BUILDING BECAUSE THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT 
HAD DISRUPTED THE STR IS MOVING EAST, OUT OF THE AREA. TY 22W 
WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AFTER ITS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WAS TERMINATED. 
IT IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN TO 95 KTS BY TAU 12, THEN MAINTAIN 
THAT INTENSITY UNTIL AFTER TAU 48, WHEN IT WILL RESUME WEAKENING. 
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH HAS 
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH. THE SPREAD AMONG THE MEMBERS IS 145 NM AT 
TAU 72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO AGREE 
WITH THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND REFLECT THE WEAKENING TREND. 
THROUGH TAU 72, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS MODERATE 
BASED ON THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.   
   C. BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96, A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED 
TO WEAKEN THE STR AND ALLOW TY 22W TO RECURVE. AT THIS POINT, TRACK 
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE 
AND THE TRACK SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND 
JTWC FORECAST TRACK HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWESTWARD ONCE AGAIN WITH THE 
MOST RECENT MODEL RUN, CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS, 
WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SOUTHWEST OF CONSENSUS. THE ECMWF AND 
NAVGEM SOLUTION HAVE CONSISTENTLY RECURVED 22W FURTHER WEST AND 
LATER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. OUTFLOW WILL BE TEMPORARILY ENHANCED AS 
22W TAPS INTO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INCREASING VWS AND LAND 
INTERACTION ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TY 22W BEYOND TAU 72, AS 
TY 22W IS NOW FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA 
BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN 
AROUND TAU 96 AS 22W INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND 
BAROCLINIC ZONE, ALTHOUGH AS 22W IS NOW FORECAST TO TRACK OVER LAND 
AT TAU 120 INSTEAD OF OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN, AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO 
IS POSSIBLE WHERE IT DISSIPATES OVER LAND. CONFIDENCE IN THE 
FORECAST TRACK IS LOW FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO HIGH 
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE RECURVE.//
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