WDPN35 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) 
WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 93 NM SOUTHWEST 
OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
RAPIDLY-CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE.
A 171136Z GMI 37GHZ COLOR IMAGE DEPICTS A CYAN RING FEATURE, A 
TYPICAL PRECURSOR TO AN IMMINENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE, 
SURROUNDING A ROUND MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS 
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS 
ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 
FROM KNES AND PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A VERY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY TWO TUTT CELLS AND A 
DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING EAST OF HONSHU. TY 22W IS 
TRACKING SLOWLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST, TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH.      
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. 
   B. THE MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LINGER EAST OF 
HONSHU THROUGH TAU 24, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE BREAK IN THE STR 
RESULTING IN SLOW TRACK SPEEDS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUASI-
STATIONARY TRACK MOTION. AFTER TAU 24, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS 
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE STR TO RE-
BUILD AND ACCELERATE TY SOULIK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD 
TOWARD KYUSHU. DUE TO THE ROBUST OUTFLOW, TY 22W WILL CONTINUE TO 
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS FORECASTED AT 
TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 
72 WITH A 100NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE 
IS HIGH THROUGH TAU 72.   
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY SOULIK IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE OVER OR TO THE 
WEST OF KYUSHU AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 120. 
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECASTED BY TAU 96 AS TY 22W APPROACHES 
KYUSHU DUE TO INCREASED INTERACTION WITH LAND AND SIGNIFICANT 
WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS ACROSS KYUSHU. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS 
NOW IN IMPROVED AGREEMENT WITH NAVGEM NOW INDICATING A RECURVE 
SCENARIO JUST WEST OF KYUSHU. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A MODERATE 
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE AND ASSOCIATED 
TRACK SPEEDS--THERE IS CURRENTLY A 250NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN 
SOLUTIONS NEAR SASEBO. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC 
FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EARLY FORECAST PERIOD AND 
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE RECURVE FORECASTS / TRACK SPEEDS IN 
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.//
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