WDPN35 PGTW 170300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) 
WARNING NR 07 CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 199 NM SOUTH OF IWO
TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE MASS 
OF DEEP CONVECTION (250NM IN DIAMETER) WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND A POSSIBLE NASCENT EYE 
FEATURE. A 162216Z GMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE IMPROVED 
SIGNATURE AND REVEALS A LOW LEVEL EYE FEATURE ON THE SOUTHEASTERN 
SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, PROVIDING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS, 
BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS), SUPPORTED BY THE 
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND EYE FEATURE OBSERVED IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE 
REMAINS CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TY 22W, AND IS INDUCING 
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS CAUSING THE ASYMMETRIC 
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. HOWEVER, THIS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS 
HELPING TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW INTO TWO TUTT 
CELLS, POSITIONED NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, IS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. VWS IS LOW TO MODERATE AT 
10-20 KNOTS, SSTS ARE SUPPORTIVE (29-30C), AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 
VALUES ARE HIGH. TY 22W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST.       
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.   
   B. TYPHOON 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH 
TAU 24 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STEERING 
RIDGE; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY, 
BECOMING NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36, AS A MID-
LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITS TO THE NORTH CREATING A WEAK 
STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH 22W WILL MEANDER FOR ROUGHLY 12 TO 24 
HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A 
STRONG RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT OVER JAPAN, PUSHING THE SYSTEM ONTO 
A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. TYPHOON SOULIK IS FORECAST TO 
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT TAPS INTO STRONGLY 
DIFFLUENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AIDED BY THE TWO PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 
TUTT CELLS AND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALL AVAILABLE MODELS 
AGREE THAT THIS MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE DIRECT 
INTERACTION WITH 22W AND THAT THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY IN 
THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BEFORE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD. MODELS 
ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 BUT SHOW INCREASING SPREAD 
THEREAFTER, WITH NAVGEM AND GALWEM THE TWO OUTLIERS SHOWING A TRACK 
TO THE SOUTH OVER THE RYUKYU ISLANDS, AND THE BULK OF THE MODELS 
TRACKING 22W OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN AROUND TAU 120. OVERALL, THERE IS 
MUCH TIGHTER AGREEMENT WITH A 130 NM SPREAD AT TAU 72. THE JTWC 
TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.    
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TYPHOON SOULIK IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN KYUSHU AS THE STR STRENGTHENS TO THE 
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. 22W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY TAU 96, 
AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CHOKE OFF THE PRIMARY POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
CHANNEL AND INCREASES VWS. INTENSITY WILL THEN DROP OFF GRADUALLY AS 
THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, ALONG 
WITH DECREASING SSTS AND INCREASING VWS. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE HAS COME 
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS, 
BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER PORTIONS OF 
THE FORECAST WITH A 380 NM SPREAD AT TAU 120. NAVGEM AND GALWEM ARE 
THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IN FAIR 
AGREEMENT. THE JTWC TRACK LIES JUST NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL 
CONSENSUS. IN LIGHT OF THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST 
TRACK AND THE LEVEL OF INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, 
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CHANGED KURIL ISLANDS TO RYUKYU 
ISLANDS.//
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