WDPN35 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) 
WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 483
NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR AND MSI SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOW A PARTLY EXPOSED LLC WITH THE MAIN BULK OF THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION SLIGHTLY DISPLACED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE SAME SATELLITE
LOOPS SHOW A NARROW EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON THE LLC FEATURE ON THE SATELLITE
ANIMATIONS WHICH LINED UP NICELY WITH A RAGGED AND ELONGATED 37 GHZ
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 2049Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5 AND A SATCON DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.8. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A NARROW ZONE OF MODERATE
RELATIVE VWS (15 KNOTS) THAT IS OFFSET BY OUTFLOW. THERE IS ALSO
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT CAUSED BY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STR ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE YELLOW 
SEA.  
ALONG-TRACK SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF A NER TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE 
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 15W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 24, THEN
NORTHEASTWARD UP TO TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER. A
STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS PREVAIL. CONCURRENTLY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR AND A SECONDARY STR TO ITS NORTHEAST WILL DESCEND
SOUTHWARD TO THE EAST OF HONSHU. THIS ORIENTATION WITH TD 15W WILL
ENHANCE OUTFLOW AND CONTRIBUTE TO ITS INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 85
KNOTS AT TAU 72 SHORTLY AFTER PASSING IWO TO. 
   C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SECONDARY STR TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BUILD AND
ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE TD 15W NORTHWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD. BY TAU
120, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE MADE LANDFALL NEAR TOKYO, JAPAN. INCREASING
VWS, PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, AND COOLING SSTS WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, 15W WILL STILL BE MINIMUM
TYPHOON INTENSITY WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER JAPAN. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NAVGEM AND
COAMPS AS THE NOTABLE OUTLIERS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONW TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY
WESTWARD TRACK PROPOSED BY THE OUTLIER MEMBERS.//
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