WDPN34 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (WUKONG) WARNING NR 
10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 14W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 407 NM 
NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SHALLOWING SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AND 
SUPPORTED BY A 232336Z ASCAT CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A T3.0 (45 KNOTS) DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM 
PGTW, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE SAME ASCAT PASS NOTED ABOVE. UPPER 
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WUKONG HAS MAINTAINED FAIRLY ROBUST 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOTS) 
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST 
COUPLED WITH A RIBBON OF DRY AIR INTRUDING INTO THE CENTER HAS 
HALTED THE PREVIOUS INTENSIFICATION TREND. TS 14W IS TRACKING ALONG 
THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE 
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, HOWEVER, FORECAST INTENSITIES 
HAVE BEEN DECREASED IN RESPONSE TO NEGATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE.
   B. TS 14W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO 
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST AS THE STEERING STR 
BUILDS TO THE EAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN GENERALLY 
FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 24. ADDITIONALLY, VWS AND OUTFLOW ARE EXPECTED 
TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 36, WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SLIGHT 
INTENSIFICATION AT TAU 24 AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES MODESTLY. 
AFTER TAU 36, VWS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING UPPER 
LOW TO THE NORTH, RESULTING IN A WEAKENING TREND. TS 14W WILL BEGIN 
INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC LOW BY TAU 36, AND WILL COMPLETE 
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72, IF NOT SOONER. DYNAMIC MODEL 
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STRONG AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN