WDPN34 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) 
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 489
NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A RELATIVELY SMALL SYSTEM (APPROXIMATELY 160 NM ACROSS) THAT
HAS MAINTAINED A BALL OF FLARING DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND IS
SLIGHTLY OFFSET SOUTHEASTWARD FROM AN OBSCURED LLC AS IT STRUGGLES TO
CONSOLIDATE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A WEAK AND RAGGED LLC
FEATURE IN THE 150949Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VWS BUT WITH
MINIMAL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, ALONG-TRACK SSTS ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE AT 30
CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH.             
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THIS SYSTEM. 
   B. TD 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS CURRENT WEST-
NORTHWEST-
WARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. BY TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH LUZON STRAIT INTO
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. BY TAU 72, TD 11W WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN TIP
OF HAINAN. THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE STEADY BUT
ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION DUE TO LIMITED OUTFLOW, PEAKING AT 50
KNOTS BY TAU 72. 
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 11W WILL CROSS THE GULF OF TONKIN AND MAKE
LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM JUST NORTH OF SAIGON. LAND INTERACTION
WILL MAINLY CAUSE ITS DECAY; BY TAU 120 THE SYSTEM WILL BE REDUCED TO
A 25-KNOT DEPRESSION DISSIPATING OVER LAND. THE MAJORITY OF THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
COAMPS AS THE SOLE LEFT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE
FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.  
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