WDPN32 PGTW 110900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (MALIKSI) WARNING NR 14// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (MALIKSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 188 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 29 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING CLOUD FIELD WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH IS BEGINNING TO ELONGATE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 110516Z 37GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 110007Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A SWATH OF 45 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TS 06W IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BECOME MARGINAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT (25 TO 26 DEGREES CELSIUS). TS 06W IS TRACKING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 06W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD, TS 06W WILL ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TS 06W IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 18 WITH WINDS OF 45 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN