WDPN32 PGTW 110300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (MALIKSI) WARNING NR 13// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MALIKSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 286 NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO MIGRATE RADIALLY AWAY. THE HEAVIEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOW LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF HONSHU AHEAD AND TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK OF TS 06W, AS WELL AS FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION, SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO LOSE SOME OF ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING ANIMATED MSI AS WELL AS A 092141Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE FALLEN TO T3.0 FROM BOTH PGTW AND RJTD, AND GIVEN THE DEGRADATION OF THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE SINCE THE LAST WARNING, THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 45 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 06W IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY MID-LATITUDE FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS TRAVERSING THE SEA OF JAPAN. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED (15 TO 20 KNOTS) OVER THE SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY, WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BARELY SUPPORTIVE OF TROPICAL CONVECTION (26 DEGREES CELSIUS) AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 06W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL, TS 06W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN