WDPN32 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (MALIKSI) WARNING 
NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (MALIKSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 181 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING A BURST OF CONVECTIVE BUILDUP AS A RAGGED
EYE IS BECOMING APPARENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAGGED EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI AND LINED UP
WITH A LLC FEATURE IN THE 092156Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS A BLEND OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.0. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TS 06W IS NOW EXPOSED TO THE STRONG WESTERLIES AS EVIDENCED
BY IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN THE MSI LOOP. ADDITIONALLY, THE
ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD STORM MOTION IS GREATLY MITIGATING THE
INCREASING VWS IN THE AREA. SSTS ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE AT 30 CELSIUS.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS MALIKSI WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST IN THE NEAR TERM AND WILL PROVIDE THE SYSTEM A SMALL
WINDOW TO FURTHER INTENSIFY UP TO 65 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
AFTERWARD, IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SSTS DECREASE AND VWS
INCREASES. TS 06W WILL ALSO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY
TAU 36 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST 
TRACK.//
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