WDPN32 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (MALIKSI) WARNING 
NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (MALIKSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 313 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED AN EXPANSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE FIELD, MOST OF WHICH IS 
OFFSET EQUATORWARD OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED 
FROM THE MSI LOOP AND ON A RAGGED CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 082210Z 
SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES 
TO REFLECT THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. TS 06W IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MODERATE INTENSIFICATION WITH EXCELLENT 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE VWS, AND 
WARM SSTS OF 30-31 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE HAS ROUNDED THE WESTERN EDGE 
OF THE STEERING STR TO THE EAST AND IS NOW TRACKING ON THE POLEWARD 
SIDE. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS MALIKSI IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. A MODEST INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM IS EXPECTED AS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES AND THE OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS REMAIN
FAVORABLE, PEAKING AT 60 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 24, INCREASING VWS AND
COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. BY TAU 48, IT WILL
ALSO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, BECOMING A GALE-FORCE COLD-CORE
LOW BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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