WDPN31 PGTW 070300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 20// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 201 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS IMPROVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CO-LOCATED WITH DEEPENING AND FLARING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND A PARTIAL 062210Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE BANDING AND THE 070000Z PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY FIX OF T2.0 (30 KTS). HOWEVER, THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE HAS IMPROVED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, AND IT APPEARS THAT TD 05W IS BEGINNING TO MODESTLY RE-INTENSIFY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY REMAIN WARM, BETWEEN 27 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MEI- YU FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND PROPAGATING EASTWARD, AND WILL CARRY TD 05W TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE PREDOMINANT STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST RECEDES. SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS 05W MOVES OVER WATER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER MAINLAND CHINA IN APPROXIMATELY 24 HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL, TD 05W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANTS OF THE CIRCULATION COULD EVENTUALLY MOVE BACK OVER WATER BUT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEI-YU FRONT. THUS, THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR TD 05W TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TURN AND THE BAROCLINIC NATURE OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND TAU 48. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN