WDPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING 
NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 217 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TD 05W. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 051051Z 36GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS
IMPROVED BANDING WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINING JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD
BASED ON THE IMPROVING DEEP CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TD 05W IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BENEFITING FROM GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT, RANGING FROM 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 05W
IS TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE EAST.
TD 05W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 24 DUE TO
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WARM AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CHANNELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT AS TD 05W TRACKS NORTHWARD. TD 05W WILL MAKE LANDFALL
SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 36 WITH AN INTENSITY NEAR 40 KNOTS. TD 05W WILL
THEN TRAVEL INLAND AND DISSIPATE TO 20 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS BUT IS STILL IN POOR AGREEMENT OVERALL. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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