WDPN31 PGTW 310300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 026// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 03W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 356 NM NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DETERIORATING SYSTEM WITH A CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION LARGELY DUE TO THE OVERCAST LAYER OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 302109Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS THE APPROXIMATE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE WITH A WEAK CENTRAL CONVECTIVE PLUME EXTENDING TO THE NORTH EAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS WHICH IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MULTI- AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES ALL REPORTING A CURRENT INTENSITY OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) DUE TO THE DRASTIC CHANGE IN CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS AND A 302215 SATCON ESTIMATE OF 67 KNOTS. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG ZONAL JET JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT IS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. SSTS ARE SUPPORTIVE AROUND 27 CELSIUS, HOWEVER THE HOSTILE UPPER- LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL PREVENT ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. TY 03W IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A DEEP-LAYERED NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 03W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE NEAR TERM AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER POLEWARD, LEADING TO A CONTINUED TREND OF RAPID WEAKENING AS THE CONVECTIVE MASS DECOUPLES FROM THE LLCC. SSTS ALSO BEGIN TO DECLINE RAPIDLY POLEWARD OF 20 DEGREES NORTH FURTHER CONTRIBUTING TO THE WEAKENING TREND. C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD TY 03W WILL SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION AS IT WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. TY 03 WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW DIFFERING SOLUTIONS IN BOTH TRACK AND SPEED OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. HWRF, AFUM AND NAVGEM SHOW A FASTER TRACK WHILE GFS, ECMWF, FAVOR A SLOWER SCENARIO SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST TRACK. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN