WDPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (JELAWAT) 
WARNING NR 020//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 03W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 636 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
UNDERGONE ANOTHER CYCLIC FLAREUP AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION DEEPENED
ANEW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE FROM
A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 290847Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS AVERAGED FROM AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.0 AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATE
OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
WITH MODERATE (15-20 KT) VWS. ALONG-TRACK SSTS AT 29C ARE ALSO
CONDUCIVE. THE SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) AS IT IS CURRENTLY
LODGED IN THE COL AREA BETWEEN THE STR TO THE EAST AND THE STR TO THE
WEST.       
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STR TO THE EAST WHICH WILL BECOME THE
PREDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
WARM SSTS WITH MODERATE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND INCREASED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION,
PEAKING AT 75 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND
COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 72, CENTRAL 
WIND SPEED WILL BE REDUCED TO 50 KNOTS.       
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS JELAWAT WILL SLIGHTLY ACCELERATE
ALONG THE SAME TRACK AND CONTINUE ITS DECAY AS STRONG VWS AND COOL
SSTS TAKE THEIR TOLL. BY TAU 120, THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 35 KNOTS WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME SPREADING
IN THE LONG TERM; HOWEVER, NAVGEM, AFUM, AND COAMPS-TC PREDICT HIGHER
ACCELERATION AT THE LATER TAUS, SUGGESTING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
IN VIEW OF THIS AND THE INITIAL QS MOTION, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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