WDPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (JELAWAT) 
WARNING NR 14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 202 NM 
NORTHWEST OF YAP, FSM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
SUSTAINED, CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER, LOW-LEVEL BANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS, AND GOOD 
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SUPPORTED 
BY THE RJTD FIX POSITION, A 272313Z PARTIAL OSCAT PASS, AND A 
272254Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS 
BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) 
AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OSCAT PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR INTENSIFICATION 
WITH 10-20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD OUTFLOW, AND 
SSTS AROUND 28 CELSIUS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A NORTHWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 
12-24 HOURS AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 24, IT WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO 
THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE STR. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE 
FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48, ALLOWING TS 03W TO INTENSIFY TO 
70 KNOTS BEFORE IT NEARS THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND INCREASING VWS 
BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
   C. AROUND TAU 72, TS JELAWAT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW ITS 
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AS AN ANTICYCLONE OVER JAPAN BEGINS TO 
INFLUENCE ITS MOTION. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, THE CYCLONE WILL 
REMAIN IN A HIGH VWS ENVIRONMENT AND STEADILY WEAKEN TS 03W TO 30 
KNOTS BY TAU 120. THE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 72 GENERALLY 
AGREES ON THE TRACK WITH SOME SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO 
THE NORTHEAST. AROUND TAU 72, THE SPREAD IN THE ALONG-TRACK 
GUIDANCE RAPIDLY GROWS AS NAVGEM ACCELERATES THE NORTHEAST TRACK 
AND LEADS TO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WHILE THE OTHER GUIDANCE 
SLOWS THE SYSTEM DOWN DUE TO A STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER JAPAN. THE 
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WITH A PEAK 
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CONSENSUS IN CONSIDERATION OF THE CONSISTENT 
TENDENCY OF SEVERAL HWRF MODEL RUNS TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THE STORM 
TO 100 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE 
CONSENSUS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE 
GUIDANCE.// 
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