WDPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (JELAWAT) 
WARNING NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 131 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YAP, FSM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM 
CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE AS AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED AND FRAGMENTED 
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A NOTCH FEATURE IN 
THE 260922Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS HEDGED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES 
RANGING FROM T1.5 TO T2.0. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE 
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VWS, GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (18-29C) SSTS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE 
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 03W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTERWARD, IT WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK
NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD. THE AFOREMENTIONED MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AND, ONCE THE LLC CONSOLIDATES, WILL PROMOTE MODEST
INTENSIFICATION. BY TAU 72, TD 03W WILL PEAK AT 50 KNOTS.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD JELAWAT WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STEERING STR. INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL
BE MOSTLY OFFSET BY INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS THAT WILL ERODE
THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 120 JUST SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN,
WHERE IT WILL BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION WITH EXPANDING WIND
FIELD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING
FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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