WDPN31 PGTW 250300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 02// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 131 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF EAURIPIK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED MSI LOOP AND A 242348Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A POORLY ORGANIZED BUT EVIDENT SURFACE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE THAT SHOWS 30 KNOT WIND BARBS IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS A FORMATIVE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. IN THE NEAR TERM, TD 03W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL PASS BETWEEN PALAU AND YAP ISLAND AROUND TAU 24 BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD AS IT RECURVES. 03W WILL REACH THE RIDGE AXIS SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 72 AND BEGIN TO TRACK BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. DUE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, HOWEVER, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND THE UNORGANIZED NATURE OF THE LLCC, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW 03W TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS AT TAU 96. AFTERWARDS, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COMBINED WITH COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND A LACK OF ORGANIZATION WITH THE LLCC, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN