WDPN31 PGTW 110300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 10// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RETAINED AN EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A NOTCH FEATURE IN A 102131Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTH OF THE LLCC AND WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS HEDGED BELOW THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (45 KNOTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 53 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29- 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS ENHANCED BY MID- LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TS 02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUB TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP LAYERED SUB TROPICAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES THROUGH TAU 36. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36, EVENTUALLY REACHING A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL AFTER WHICH, LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AFTER LANDFALL, THE TRACK DIRECTION WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS 02W TRACKS ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE SAME STR AND EXITS INTO THE SULU SEA AFTER TAU 48 AT AROUND 65 KNOTS INTENSITY. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 02W WILL CROSS THE SULU SEA, AND PASS SOUTH OF PUERTO PRINCESA. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST AS IT ROUNDS THE EXTENSION OF THE STR MOVING TO THE EAST. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, MARGINAL CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON TRACK DIRECTION HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS IN ALONG TRACK SPEED AFTER TAU 72 LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST TRACK AND OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.// NNNN