WDPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 28W (DAMREY) 
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 28W (DAMREY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 379 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATED 
CONVECTIVE MASS LOCATED OVER A WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC). A 021053Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEP 
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LLCC WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION 
LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED 
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW FIX OF T3.5 
FROM PGTW, AND IS SUPPORTED BY A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 51 KNOTS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA 
WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING 
THROUGH WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TROPICAL STORM 
28W HAS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW  AND THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS 
BEGINNING TO TAP INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TS DAMREY IS 
CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO 
THE NORTHEAST. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.     
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 28W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AS THE 
PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE SHIFTS TO A STR LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN 
CHINA. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS 
TS 28W TRACKS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND 
EXPERIENCES ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, 
DUE TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE STORM IS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE A 
PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS AROUND 
TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH LAND 
AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF VIETNAM. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO 
MAKE LANDFALL BEFORE TAU 48 OVER SOUTHERN VIETNAM AND TRACK 
WESTWARD INTO CAMBODIA. INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE 
SOUTHERN INDO CHINA PENINSULA WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, FULLY 
DISSIPATING IT BY TAU 72. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN 
TIGHT AGREEMENT,LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL JTWC 
TRACK FORECAST.//
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