WDPN32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNING NR 29//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 232 NM SOUTHWEST OF CAMP
FUJI, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UNRAVELING 
SYSTEM EXHIBITING INCREASINGLY FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. A 221223Z 
89GHZ AMSU IMAGE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION TO THE INNER CORE 
WITH A BROAD REGION OF COOLER DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE 
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL 
POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF RADAR AND AGENCY 
SATELLITE FIXES IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED 
AT 105 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.5 TO 
T6.5 (102 TO 127 KNOTS) AND A 221026Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 95 KNOTS. 
CURRENTLY TY 25W IS ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH 
THE STRONG BAROCLINIC REGION TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL 
SYSTEM. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. 
   B. TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE ON ITS NORTHEASTWARD TRACK 
AND DETERIORATE FURTHER AS WIND SHEAR AND BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY 
TAKE ITS TOLL. TY 25W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE KANTO 
PLAIN REGION IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL 
TRANSITION BY TAU 12. WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL VERY HIGH AND THE 
MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE TYPHOON 
STRENGTH, AND THE 34, 50, AND 64 KNOT WIND RADII ARE ALSO EXPECTED 
TO REMAIN LARGE AS IT MAKES THE TRANSITION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE 
IS IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT, THUS LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE 
FORECAST TRACK.//
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