WDPN32 PGTW 211500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNING NR 25// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUPER TYPHOON 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 307 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 211242Z 89GHZ AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING A 45NM EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EVIDENT EYE FEATURE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 130 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T6.5 TO T7.0 (127 TO 140 KNOTS) AND A 211240 SATCON ESTIMATE OF 121 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD EXHAUST INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST BEGINNING TO ENCROACH UPON THE SYSTEM. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE STILL VERY WARM NEAR 29 CELSIUS, HOWEVER, STY 25W HAS TRACKED INTO AN AREA OF SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. CURRENTLY STY 25W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. STY 25W WILL KEEP TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXERTING INFLUENCE OVER THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS PERPETUATING A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ON ITS NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, VERTICAL WIND WILL RISE SUBSTANTIALLY AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERLIES AND BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC REGION. STY 25W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SOMETIME AROUND TAU 24 AS A FAIRLY LARGE AND INTENSE SYSTEM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO EXTEND FAR FROM THE SYSTEM CENTER REACHING WELL INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN DESPITE TAKING A TRACK VERY CLOSE TO YOKOSUKA NAVAL STATION AND SKIRTING THE EASTERN EDGE OF HONSHU. STY 25W WILL BEGIN TO EXHIBIT FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BOTH THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM, THUS LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN