WDPN31 PGTW 160300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR 30// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 157 NM NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION, LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON THE PGTW FIX AND A 152217Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LLCC AND THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION ARE DECOUPLING AS THE SYSTEM IS IMPACTED BY STRONG (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 58 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS IT TAPS INTO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TS TALIM IS TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 20W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THE STR FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD IT WILL EXPERIENCE GRADUAL DISSIPATION THROUGH TAU 24 AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM SSTS AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS TALIM IS FORECAST TO MAKE INITIAL LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN KYUSHU AT TAU 24. AFTER LANDFALL THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN HONSHU OUT OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN. AROUND TAU 60, TS TALIM WILL MAKE A SECONDARY LANDFALL ON HOKKAIDO. AFTER INITIAL LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48. TS 20W WILL BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 72, TRACKING THROUGH THE SEA OF OKHOTSK AS A COLD CORE LOW WITH GALE FORCE WINDS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN