ALERT      ATCF MIL 96X XXX 170824000000
2017082400
  15.6 130.0
  16.8 122.2
240
  15.7 129.1
240100
1708240051
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PGTW 240100
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6N 130.0E TO 16.8N 122.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 240000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7N 129.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 14.5N 132.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 129.2E, APPROXIMATELY 
570 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 
LOW LEVEL BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION 
LOCATED AROUND AND WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 231927Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE SLIGHTLY ELONGATED SHAPE OF THE 
CIRCULATION AND ALSO DEPICTS BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING IN.
THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(15-20 KNOTS), AND EXTREMELY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 C).
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE 
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ALTHOUGH THEY ARE SPLIT 
AS TO WHEN THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED 
BY 250100Z.//
9617082300 155N1356E  15
9617082306 156N1340E  15
9617082312 157N1323E  15
9617082318 157N1307E  15
9617082400 157N1291E  20
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