WDPN32 PGTW 290300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR 04// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. BASED ON THE MSI, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. DESPITE THE EXPOSED NATURE OF THE LLCC, A 28/2313Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING FORMING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SEMI- CIRCLES. IN LIGHT OF THE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND BROAD DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD, FOR NOW, AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW / KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). CURRENTLY TD 12W IS TRACKING SLOWLY POLEWARD WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW-LEVEL RIDGING NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL RE-ORIENT NORTH-SOUTH AND STRENGTHEN PROVIDING A STRONGER POLEWARD STEERING INFLUENCE. THIS WILL ALLOW TD 12W TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF TY 11W. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 40 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. LAND INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN NEAR TAU 36 WILL AID IN WEAKENING THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY, ALTHOUGH FUNNELING THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIT WILL ENSURE EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. TD 12W WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 48 THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS INLAND WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 72. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, DUE TO COMPLEX INTERACTION WITH TY 11W THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN