WDPN34 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (NESAT) WARNING NR 
13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 11W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 179 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED CENTER, 
WHICH PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT 
SHARP TURN NORTHWESTWARD. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM TAIWAN AND A 
28/2254Z NOAA-18 AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE ALSO SHOW A DEVELOPING EYE WITH 
STRONG SPIRAL BANDING. CONSEQUENTLY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 
ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING 
FROM T4.5 (77 KNOTS) TO T5.0 (90 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TY 11W IS TRACKING ALONG THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA.           
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 11W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF THE STR ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE
LANDFALL BY TAU 12 AND WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE 
RUGGED TERRAIN OF TAIWAN. AFTER RE-EMERGING OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT, 
TY 11W WILL MAKE ITS SECOND LANDFALL OVER EASTERN CHINA AFTER TAU 24 
AND WILL TURN POLEWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS WITH THE APPROACH OF A 
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 
72. OVERALL, GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, 
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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