WDPN32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) 
WARNING NR 07/
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 
221130Z NOAA-18 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS AN EXPOSED LLCC ON THE EASTERN 
EDGE OF ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS 
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. TD 
08W IS TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE 
LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 08W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, MAKING 
LANDFALL OVER HAINAN AFTER TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN 
INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 THEN WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT APPROACHES AND 
TRACKS OVER HAINAN ISLAND. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, 
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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