WDPN32 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) 
WARNING NR 05/
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 107 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS DIURNAL FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE COMPACT LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR OFFSET 
BY MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW 
REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 212258Z 37GHZ SSMIS PASS 
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE SSMIS IMAGE ALSO HIGHLIGHTS THE CENTRAL 
CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTHWARD OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 
25 KNOTS IS HELD SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE 
SHEARED AND WEAK CONVECTION. TD 08W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
(STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. 
   B. TD 08W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, MAKING 
LANDFALL OVER HAINAN AFTER TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY 
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, PEAKING AT 30 KNOTS BEFORE 
LANDFALL. AFTERWARDS, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF HAINAN 
WILL CAUSE RAPID DECAY AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC 
GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD. IN VIEW OF THIS, PLUS GIVEN THE 
ERRATIC MOTION OF A DECAYING SYSTEM, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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