WDPN31 PGTW 251500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 30W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING NR 18// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 30W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 187 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE (EIR) IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE EYE REMAINS VERY WELL DEFINED, BUT HAS SHRUNK IN SIZE TO 12 NM OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS BECOMING MORE RAGGED AND ELONGATED AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH LAND. A 1002Z AMSU- B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH A VERY INTENSE EYEWALL COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE EIR IMAGERY. STY NOCK-TEN MADE INITIAL LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 1030Z NEAR VIRAC, KNOCKING THE RADAR THERE OFFLINE, LIMITING POSITIONAL DATA TO THE EIR IMAGERY ONLY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT STY 30W CONTINUES TO TRACK IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), HAS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND CONTINUES TO TOP INTO WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. STY NOCK-TEN IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. STY 30W WILL TURN SLIGHTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24- HOURS TOWARD A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS SECOND LANDFALL OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF LUZON, IN THE WESTERN END OF THE LAGONAY GULF, WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST, PASSING JUST SOUTH OF METRO MANILA, BEFORE EXITING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) BY AROUND 26/06Z. STY NOCK- TEN WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN, BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT TYPHOON STRENGTH UNTIL IT REACHES THE SCS. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE. BY TAU 48, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DECOUPLED FROM THE CONVECTION, AND THE CENTER WILL CURVE SOUTHWESTWARD. C. AFTER TAU 72, SUPER TYPHOON NOCK-TEN WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE, FULLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE NAVY MESOSCALE MODELS (GFDN, COTC AND CTCX) BEING THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS, TAKING THE TRACK MORE TO THE NORTH. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//