WDPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (SARIKA) WARNING NR
27//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 24W (SARIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 106 NM EAST OF
HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
DETERIORATING SYSTEM BECOMING INCREASING DISORGANIZED AS IT
APPROACHES THE COASTLINE OF NORTHERN VIETNAM. DUE TO THE DISRUPTION
OF THE LOWER-LEVEL WIND FIELD FROM LAND INTERACTION THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS AMBIGUOUS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES IN SATELLITE FIXES, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS AND
IS BASED ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS)
FROM RJTD. CURRENTLY TS SARIKA IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TS SARIKA WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM IS EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT SIX HOURS.  TS SARIKA IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 24.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AS STORM TRACKS
OVER LAND AND DISSIPATES LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK.//