WDPN32 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (HAIMA) WARNING NR
04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 189 NM EAST
OF YAP, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE DEPTH AS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION REMAINS OBSCURED BY CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND AGENCY POSITION FIXES WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF OBJECTIVE AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. TS 25W IS
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE
PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM NEAR 30 CELSIUS
AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS VERY HIGH. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND SUPPORT
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
PHILIPPINE SEA, REACHING SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH AT 135 KNOTS BY TAU
72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS HAIMA WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
UNDER CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, PEAKING AT 140
KNOTS BY TAU 96. AFTERWARDS, INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN TIP OF
LUZON WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 115 KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//