WDPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (SARIKA) WARNING NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 24W (SARIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 306 NM SOUTH OF HONG
KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION GRADUALLY FILLING IN CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH GOOD BANDING WRAPPING THROUGHOUT. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING EIR. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON STEADY DVORAK CI OF T4.5 FROM
PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER WARM SSTS. TY 24W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TY 24W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION, BUT THE CONVECTION
IS ONLY JUST NOW BEGINNING TO RECOVER FROM EARLIER INTERACTION WITH
LUZON. AS THE FLARING DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATES FURTHER AROUND
THE LLCC, SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 85 KNOTS IS EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE INTERACTION WITH HAINAN ISLAND BEGINS AROUND
TAU 24. AFTER CROSSING THE GULF OF TONKIN, TY 24W IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE FINAL LANDFALL IN EXTREME NORTHERN VIETNAM AROUND TAU 60,
FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION OVER LAND AROUND TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//