WDPN31 PGTW 160300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (SARIKA) WARNING NR 15// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 24W (SARIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE (EIR) IMAGERY DEPICTED LANDFALL IN LUZON SHORTLY AFTER THE LAST WARNING, RESULTING IN RAPIDLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND A WEAKENING OF THE LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON THE DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND A SURFACE OBSERVATION OF APPROXIMATELY 50 KNOTS IN BOLINAO, PHILIPPINES AHEAD OF THE LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TY 24W HAS BEEN WEAKENING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO THE DEEP- LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. B. TY 24W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AS IT EXITS LUZON AND ENTERS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, ALLOWING FOR AN EVENTUAL RE-INTENSIFICATION. SOME FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS TY 24W ATTEMPTS TO REGAIN ITS VORTEX STRUCTURE. THEREAFTER, A STEADY RE-INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. LAND INTERACTION WITH HAINAN ISLAND IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 48, WITH PEAK INTENSITY OF AROUND 90 KNOTS EXPECTED JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY 24W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHERN VIETNAM AND THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE STEERING STR. TY 24W WILL SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//