WDPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (SARIKA)
WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 24W (SARIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 328 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN AREA OF DEEP CENTRAL OVERCAST
THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 140607Z
SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW CONVECTION IN THE BANDING FEATURES
WITH A BROAD AND ELONGATED LLCC, GIVING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE
INITIAL POSITION, AND AN AREA OF DEEP FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED ON
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 140131Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE
ALSO SHOWS THE LLCC SLIGHTLY ELONGATED WITH PEAK WINDS OF 35 TO 40
KNOTS LIMITED TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERIES, SUGGESTING THAT DVORAK
ESTIMATES ARE OVERESTIMATING THE INTENSITY AT 00Z. FOR THIS REASON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOWER ENVELOPE OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN T3.0 AND T3.5 (45 TO 55 KNOTS).
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL,
HOWEVER, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS COMPLEX. THERE IS A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST WHICH IS
HELPING TO PROVIDE A LIMITED POLEWARD EXHAUST FOR TS SARIKA, BUT
ANOTHER TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST IS PROVIDING PRESSURE ON
THAT QUADRANT AND RESTRICTING EXHAUST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE NEAR 30 TO 31 DEGREES. CURRENTLY TS SARIKA IS
TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG A WEAK DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TS SARIKA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG
THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE FOR THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE. AROUND TAU 36
ANOTHER DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER CHINA, EXTENDING OUTWARD
OVER TAIWAN AND ESTABLISH ITSELF AS THE DOMINANT STEERING RIDGE
ACCELERATING TS SARIKA WESTWARD. STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU
36 IS EXPECTED AS THE ENVIRONMENT GRADUALLY IMPROVES DUE TO THE
EASTWARD TUTT SLOWLY FILLING AND ALLOWING FOR MORE ROBUST OUTFLOW.
THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH 85 KNOTS BEFORE TS SARIKA MAKES
LANDFAL OVER LUZON SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36. BY TAU 48 TS SARIKA WILL
RESURFACE OVER WATER WEAKENED BUT LARGELY INTACT AND RECONSOLIDATE
WHILE IT CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST ANOTHER PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED WHILE TS SARIKA TRACKS WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE SUPPORTING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 96. FURTHER LAND INTERACTION WITH
HAINAN IS EXPECTED SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWEST
TOWARD NORTHERN VIETNAM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MUCH
IMPROVED AGREEMENT IN TRACK GROUPING. THE SPREAD BETWEEN VORTICITY
TRACKERS IS ONLY 70 NM AT THE 48 HOUR FORECAST POSITION AND 160 NM
AT THE 120 HOUR POSITION. DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//