WDPN31 PGTW 092100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (AERE) WARNING NR 18// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 191 NM EAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DECAYING, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 091901Z GPM 89GHZ COMPOSITE REVEALS A BROAD, DEFINED LLCC WITH AN ISOLATED BURST OF CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT AND SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE GPM IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT ASCAT DATA SHOWING 35 TO 40 KNOT SURGE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRATOCUMULUS FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT. TS 22W IS TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS AERE WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THE VORTEX TRACKERS INDICATING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED.//