WDPN31 PGTW 081500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (AERE) WARNING NR 13// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 22W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 172 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH LIMITED AND UNORGANIZED AREAS OF CONVECTION. A 081047Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER GIVING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS AND BASED ON THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING CONVECTION AND LOW END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.5 (35 TO 55 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT LARGELY DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW EMANATING FROM A POINT SOURCE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 28 TO 29 CELSIUS, HOWEVER, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. CURRENTLY TS AERE IS IN A POOR STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS AERE WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS EXHIBITING QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOVEMENTS. A SHORT WINDOW FOR LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS SLIGHT AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY, HOWEVER THE INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 45 KNOTS DUE TO THE NEAR STATIONARY TRACK OVER AN AREA OF LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. BEYOND TAU 36 A DEEP- LAYERED RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER CHINA HELPING TO ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE SYSTEM GAINS FORWARD MOTION, EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING OVER WATER BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN LARGE DISAGREEMENT DUE TO THE POOR STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE EARLY FORECAST PERIOD. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT AS TO THE GENERAL SOUTHWEST TRACK AFTER THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE NEAR THE GFS, ECMFW, AND MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//