WDPN33 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (DIANMU)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (DIANMU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 62 NM
NORTHWEST OF HAIKOU, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP FLARING CONVECTION THAT APPEARS TO HAVE
ACCELERATED IN THE LAST SIX HOURS MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE LEIZHOU
PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN. A 181114Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN AREA WEST OF THE
PENINSULA, HOWEVER DUE TO THE LAND FEATURES THE LLCC IS NOT EVIDENT
IN THE IMAGE GIVING POOR CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON OBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD REPORTING THE CURRENT INTENSITY
AT T1.5 (25 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL
WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES NEAR 25 KNOTS OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY A
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND WARM SSTS NEAR 30 TO 31
CELSIUS. TD 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN
CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 11W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE STEERING
RIDGE EVENTUALLY MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM NEAR TAU 24.
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS TD 11W CONSOLIDATES OVER THE
WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF TONKIN REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 30
KNOTS BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL AND DISSIPATES BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK./=