WDPN32 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MINDULLE) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MINDULLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD
AREA OF FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED IN THE
LAST SIX HOURS. A BAND OF NEWLY FORMED DEEP CONVECTION CAN BE SEEN
TO THE NORTH STARTING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. A 190636Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS A SMALL BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO A TIGHTLY WOUND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS AND IS BASED
ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND KNES REPORTING T3.0 (45 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES NEAR 15
KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 CELSIUS. OUTFLOW IS GOOD
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE NORTH AND 98W TO THE NORTHEAST IS STIFLING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANY POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 10W WAS PREVIOUSLY TRACKING NORTHEAST
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON FLOW, BUT HAS SHIFTED TRACK IN THE
LAST 12 HOURS DUE TO A WEAK MID TO LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. DUE TO THE NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN TRACK OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS, THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED MORE WEST.
   B. IN THE NEAR TERM, TS 10W WILL RESUME A NORTHWARD TRACK
AS A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
EAST. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
CONSOLIDATE AND OUTFLOW IMPROVES. THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST
TRACK WILL KEEP TS 10W INTO WARMER WATERS THROUGH TAU 72 AND
PROVIDE A CONSISTENT ENERGY SOURCE. OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
AS TS 10W TRACKS NORTHWARD, HOWEVER, THE COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT COULD CHANGE AT A MOMENT'S NOTICE TO HELP INTENSIFY OR
HINDER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, 10W WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS
AROUND TAU 72 AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH JAPAN. THE
PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP ENHANCE OUTFLOW PROVIDING SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION OF TS 10W TO TYPHOON STRENGTH OF 65 KNOTS JUST PRIOR
TO MAKING LANDFALL WEST OF YOKOSUKA. TS 10W WILL TRAVEL UP THE
ISLAND OF HONSHU FURTHER INTERACTING WITH THE TROUGH, EVENTUALLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY
UNRELIABLE RECENTLY, BUT THE LATEST (00Z) RUN IS IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. THE NAVGEM AND COAMPS-TC
SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING A TRACK MORE WESTWARD, AND LIKELY DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH 12W AS IT PASSES TO THE WEST. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS
SHOWING A TRACK DUE NORTH WITH VIRTUALLY NO DEVIATION IN TRACK
DIRECTION, AND SEEMINGLY UNAFFECTED BY NEARBY 12W AND 98W.
INTERACTION WITH OTHER TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE REGION IS STILL
POSSIBLE, AND THEREFORE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE FORECAST
TRACK./=