WDPN31 PGTW 012100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (NIDA) WARNING NR 14// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 46 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDES OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN INCREASINGLY RAGGED AND DETERIORATING EYE NEAR LANDFALL. A 011714 AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THE EYE WALL OPENING TO THE NORTH, AND THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EYE APPEARS TO BE PUSHING OUT AHEAD OF THE LLCC AS EVIDENT IN THE ANIMATED IR IMAGERY. HONG KONG RADAR DEPICTS THE LLCC MOVING WITH A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION AS IT NEARS LANDFALL. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS IN HONG KONG WERE OBSERVED TO BE APPROXIMATELY 40 KTS, AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON MOST RECENT PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5. TY 06W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE LLCC OF TY 06W HAS SLOWED, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IMMINENT LANDFALL JUST NORTH AND EAST OF HONG KONG. AFTER LANDFALL, IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS TY 06W MOVES INLAND, IT WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS./=