WDPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (NEPARTAK)
WARNING NR 26//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 02W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 168 NM WEST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DECAYING CONVECTION AND AN ELONGATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER,
AFTER THE SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF CHINA OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. A 090645Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE AND A 090222Z ASCAT
PASS ALSO REVEAL THE BROAD, RAGGED NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION,
PROVIDING OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITIONING OF THE SYSTEM.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF TS NEPARTAK IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED
ON THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE CONVECTION AROUND THE SYSTEM, AND
RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA SHOWING A SWATH OF 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT. WITH THE SYSTEM NOW OVER LAND, THE INCREASED
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL HAMPER ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 02W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, MOVING FURTHER INLAND OVER MAINLAND CHINA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK./=