WDPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (NEPARTAK)
WARNING NR 23//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 02W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 146 NM SOUTHWEST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
080959Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A DECOUPLED CIRCULATION WITH A
RESURGENCE OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM
PESGHU, TAIWAN AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT BEST TRACK POSITION WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED TO
70 KNOTS, AND IS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T4.0-5.0 (65-90 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. DESPITE A FAVORABLE UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, TYPHOON NEPARTAK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING IN THE NEAR TERM DUE TO THE DECOUPLED NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM, AND ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TYPHOON NEPARTAK IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS A TROUGH INDUCED WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TYPHOON NEPARTAK IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AT A STEADY RATE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF CHINA
AROUND TAU 24. THIS SYSTEM WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER THE MAINLAND OF
CHINA BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK./=