WDPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (MELOR) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 28W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 177 NM SOUTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED AS IT DRAGGED ACROSS THE
PHILIPPINE ARCHIPELAGO. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP
AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 151014Z
SSMI-S MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
90 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM 
PGTW, KNES AND RJTD AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE SYSTEM.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. 
   B. TY MELOR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST- 
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT 
36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. LAND INTERACTION,
INCREASING VWS AND THE INTRUSION OF COLD DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG CONTINENTAL COLD SURGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL ACCELERATE
ITS DECAY, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. MODEL TRACKS DIVERGE
AFTER TAU 36, HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK THROUGH TAU 36.//
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