WDPN31 PGTW 140300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (MELOR) WARNING NR 11// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 28W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 307NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN 12-NM DIAMETER EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 132306Z SSMIS-91 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A NEARLY SOLID 75 NAUTICAL MILE DIAMETER CORE WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS, AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT FALLING DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE, TY 28W IS BEGINNING TO FEEL THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY MELOR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE ANALYSIS, GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG INTENSITY GUIDANCE, AND INCREASING LAND INTERACTION, THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE DECAY TREND WILL THEN BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING VWS AND THE INTRUSION OF COLD DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG CONTINENTAL COLD SURGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. BETWEEN TAUS 36-48, TY 28W WILL SLOW AS THE STEERING MECHANISM SHIFTS FROM A DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW TO THE LOW LEVEL SURGE FLOW. MODEL TRACKS DIVERGE AFTER TAU 36, HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 36.// NNNN