WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 
33//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (IN-FA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 469 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
AND A 232204Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEEP 
CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI 
AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND 
WEAKENING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. 
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES IN-FA IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG 
(30 TO 40 KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VIGOROUS 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW SUSTAINING THE LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE 
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. TS 27W IS TRACKING ALONG THE 
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS IN-FA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY AS IT 
TRACKS INTO STRONGER MIDLATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLIES AFTER TAU 12. 
AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS 
IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TS 27W SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY 
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. 
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE 
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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