WDPN31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX) 
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 
745 NM NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, 
AS EVIDENT IN A 221108Z ASCAT PASS, WITH A DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE 
STRUCTURE. A 220746Z CORIOLIS MICROWAVE IMAGE FURTHER ILLUSTRATES 
THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE LLCC AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW; BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). 
THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED 
ASCAT PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. TD 25W IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL 
ENVIRONMENT WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING PARTIALLY 
OFFSET BY DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS 
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC, PREVENTING 
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LLCC. TD 26W IS TRACKING ON THE 
POLEWARD SIDE OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) 
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 26W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR 
AXIS. INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO SLIGHTLY 
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD. TD 26W WILL CONTINUE ETT OVER THE 
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST 
PERIOD OR POSSIBLE SOONER, BECOMING A WEAK COLD CORE LOW. IT IS ALSO 
POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES PRIOR TO ETT DUE TO HIGH VWS. 
BASED ON THE TIGHT AGREEMENT IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE 
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, THERE IS NOW HIGH 
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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