WDPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 
46//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM 
NORTH OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION, DISPLACED OVER THE 
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 
241110Z METOP-A 89GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED SHALLOW 
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH A CURVED 
DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. OVERALL, THERE IS 
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE METOP-A IMAGE. 
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF 
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS. 
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 25W IS TRACKING UNDER MODERATE TO 
STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER, THE SHEAR 
VECTOR IS PARALLEL TO THE MOTION VECTOR, WHICH IS ALLOWING THE 
SYSTEM TO RETAIN CENTRAL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ADDITIONALLY, 
VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS OFFSETTING THE VWS. TS 25W IS TRACKING 
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 25W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE 
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION 
(ETT). TS 25W WILL COMPLETE ETT NEAR TAU 24 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL 
CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG MIDLATITUDE 
WESTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH 
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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