WDPN32 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 32//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 25W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME WEAKENING OF 
CORE CONVECTION, SPECIFICALLY ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF A THE 
VISIBLE DIMPLE/EMBEDDED CENTER. THE POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE, REINFORCED BY A 202225Z SSMIS MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. 
HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN KEEPING WITH A 
SLIGHT FALL IN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW. EQUATORWARD 
FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG, OFFSETTING 10 TO 15 KNOTS OF VWS. THE 
SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR 
EXTENSION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD 
THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STR 
AXIS. EXPECT MARGINAL TO NO INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
AS THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL BE OFFSET BY 
INCREASED VWS. BEYOND THAT TIME, COOLER SSTS WILL START TO HAVE AN 
EFFECT ON THE SYSTEM BRINGING FURTHER DECAY. FINALLY, BY TAU 72, THE 
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND CONTINUE 
TO WEAKEN.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO 
WEAKEN AS IT GAINS LATITUDE. ADDITION, THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE 
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC 
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH 
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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