WDPN31 PGTW 040900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (MUJIGAE) WARNING NR 14// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (MUJIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 252 NM EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHARP 15-NM EYE THAT HAS MADE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF ZHANJIANG, CHINA. THE BD CURVE ENHANCEMENT ON INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TYPHOON CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL, INDICATED BY THE COOLING CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE FEATURE. IN RESPONSE, DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED, NOW RANGING FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS SUPPORTED BY RADAR FIXES FROM RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, WITH THE TYPHOON NOW OVER LAND, THE INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL HAMPER ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TY MUJIGAE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY MUJIGAE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY, MOVING FURTHER INLAND. TY 22W WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR POSSIBLY SOONER. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN