WDPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 
12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 538 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WEST- 
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT DEEP 
CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 241011Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO 
REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS WRAPPING 
INTO AN APPARENT MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE 
EIR ANIMATION AND AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE 
AND HEDGED HIGHER THAN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING 
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 21W REMAINS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS AND RADIAL OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT ON 
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TS DUJUAN IS TRACKING ALONG THE 
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. SLOW MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO 
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, DUJUAN WILL 
MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE 
STR. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL AND UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST 
TO PERSIST, ALLOWING DUJUAN TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS 21W IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 
115 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. DUJUAN WILL SLIGHTLY TURN WESTWARD AS THE WESTERN STR ASSUMES 
THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT 
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH TAIWAN. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE NEAR 
TERM, BUT SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. DUE TO 
TRACK UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE SPREAD AMONG AVAILABLE 
TRACKERS, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
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