WDPN32 PGTW 161500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (ATSANI) WARNING NR 10// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 17W (ATSANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF UJELANG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED LLCC WITH TIGHTLY- CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL- DEFINED CENTER. A 150811Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A 60 NM WIDE MICROWAVE EYE. WITH THE LLCC THIS WIDE, THERE IS LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION OF THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 65 KNOTS DUE TO CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS. TY 17W STEERING REMAINS IN CONFLICT BETWEEN COMPETING ENVIRONMENTS, THE STR TO THE NORTH AND THE NER TO THE SOUTH, CAUSING SLOW TRACK SPEEDS. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 17W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 DUE TO THE COMPETING, COMPLEX, STEERING ENVIRONMENT. BEYOND TAU 12, THE NER WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ALLOWING THE STR TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AND ACCELERATING TY ATSANI POLEWARD. EXPECT NEAR RAPID INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72 AS OUTFLOW BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE AND THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER WARM WATER. C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY ATSANI WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS A BREAK IN THE STR DEVELOPS DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 130 KNOTS IS EXPECTED DUE TO FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, BY TAU 120, EXPECT A SLIGHT DIP IN INTENSITY DUE TO LOWER OHC VALUES AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH OF 23 DEGREES. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, BUT DUE TO ITS SLOW MOVEMENT IN THE SHORT-TERM, THERE IS ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN