WDPN32 PGTW 160300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 17W (ATSANI) WARNING NR 08// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (ATSANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 206 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ENEWETAK, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING (TCB) WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. A 152053Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE ALSO REVEALS RAPIDLY IMPROVING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER ALL QUADRANTS WITH A SLIGHTLY BROAD CENTER. DUE TO THE BROAD CENTER, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY THE STRONG TUTT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES, WHICH ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. TS 17W REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE STR TO THE NORTH AND THE NER TO THE SOUTH, CONSEQUENTLY, TRACK MOTION REMAINS SLOW. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 17W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 12, THE NER WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ALLOWING THE STR TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. THEREFORE, TS ATSANI SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS. TS 17W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 24 TO AN INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS BY TAU 72. C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS ATSANI WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, BUT DUE TO ITS SLOW, ERRATIC MOVEMENT IN THE SHORT-TERM, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN